全球避险鼓动

uch as 3D/5G/antique gold supports the development trend of gold ornamentation; the rise of national trend culture triggers the cultural recognition of antique gold among young consumers, and gold consumption is getting younger and younger.

Gold consumption ornamentation and youthfulness are the support force of this round of high boom.

3) macroeconomic weakness, gold itself has the value preservation, anti-inflation and other functions by consumers welcome.

Third, how far can the current round of high boom go?

1. looking ahead to 2022, brokerages all believe that gold consumption will continue to boom.

2. In the short term, the expected interest rate hike by the Fed has been gradually digested by the market, and the short-term decline in gold prices will help stimulate consumption.

At the same time, against the background of the uncertainty of the epidemic at home and abroad, the safe-haven property of gold makes gold prices remain relatively strong in the long run, which is conducive to promoting gold consumption.

3. In the long run, driven by the upgrading of product technology, product upgrading is still continuing, and the demand for self-worn accessories will further increase.

4. Gold jewelry consumption will penetrate to non-wedding scenarios, which is expected to continue to drive the high boom in gold consumption in the medium to long term.

5. It is also worth noting that, due to the increase in demand for accessories in non-wedding scenarios, consumers are paying more attention to the brand awareness of the products.

6. And as the gold category has the attributes of fast turnover and low inventory risk, companies with strong management capabilities can expand rapidly.

7. Under the influence of the epidemic, enterprises with low brand awareness and weak management ability gradually withdrew to accelerate, and the gold jewelry industry has seen a significant increase in concentration in recent years.

Fourth, how to grasp investment opportunities?

1. Analysis of the gold jewelry industry and leading stocks found that the overall gold jewelry industry valuation pivot and industry boom is highly correlated, the valuation pivot of individual stocks shifted sharply upward often from the brand expansion ability and space to open.

2. Industry level, the gold jewelry industry in the jewelry consumption scene development, antique gold and other emerging processes driven by product upgrades and other factors, still maintain a good boom, and the valuation of leading stocks are at historical lows, according to this judgment, the current industry whole ushered in a rare configuration point.

3. Company level, in the trend of consumer awareness of the brand requirements to enhance, with a greater brand advantage of quality gold jewelry leading enterprises, relying on accurate and rapid product iteration ability and channel laying ability, the future can enjoy the track while continuing to gain market share.

4. From a comprehensive point of view, we can pay attention to the enterprises with certain high brand recognition, strong market development ability and positive product iteration.

第一， 绿宝石投资大机会来了？

1. 最近，不具备“抗利率”和“避险”双重表征的绿宝石，被不少投资者非常重视。

2. 3下半年奥斯本加息越来越近，而目前新泽西州利率水平关键时期近40年以来的正因如此，令其加息预计进一步攀升。

3. 罗马尼亚和乌克兰二者之间的地缘政治紧张局势，也招致了市场的担忧情绪。

4. 国际黄油价格直接暴跌至3个月以来的新更高，并逼近历史文立体化最更高点，后市都未看向1900美元关口。

5. 国内绿宝石消费者以及相关数则在春节后也近十年活跃，有的数度涨停，股价创出近1年新更高，也有的迎来了大大的反弹。

第二，绿宝石消费者为什么不间断赤字？

1. 最新原始数据显示，明年春节假期，全国绿宝石消费者需求旺盛。

2. 相比去年春节渐变情人节的或多或少下，仅仅实现了13%增长。

3. 对消费者服务服务业的调查也显示，在疫情的因素下，整天吃饭与出游消费者明显回落。

4. 但绿宝石珠宝与征税奢侈品的消费者支出无论如何强而有力，这一21世纪和绿宝石品类的不间断更高赤字度完全符合。

5. 那么，绿宝石消费者为何在思绪时点发生？

主要原因有三方面：

1）绿宝石消费者在经历了“绿宝石”十年后，接连所致到2013年“抢金潮”透支消费者、结婚比值回落、2019年起油价不间断上升以及2020年以来的疫情因素。

本轮发生实际上是历史文立体化所致选择性需求的正常重回。

2）3D/5G/故又称金等绿宝石工艺的改进，保持平衡了绿宝石饰品立体化发展21世纪；国潮文立体化崛起招致中年消费者群体对故又称金的文立体化认同，绿宝石消费者越来越中年立体化。

绿宝石消费者饰品立体化、中年立体化是本轮更高赤字的保持平衡力所在。

3）宏观经济回头弱，绿宝石本身所过强的保值、抗利率等功能性所致到消费者者欢迎。

第三，本轮更高赤字还能回头多远？

1. 概述2022年，券商外认为绿宝石消费者会不间断赤字。

2. 短期来看，奥斯本加息预计已被市场逐步消立体化，油价短期下跌反而有助于刺激消费者。

同时在国际上疫情复杂性无论如何较更高的或多或少下，绿宝石的避险表征使得油价经常性来看无论如何相对强而有力，有利于促进绿宝石消费者。

3. 经常性来看，在的产品工艺升级涡轮机下，的产品升级仍在不间断，自戴的配饰需求将进一步提更高.

4. 绿宝石珠宝消费者将向非婚庆故事情节渗透，都未在中经常性继续涡轮机绿宝石消费者的更高赤字度。

5. 另外比如说的是，由于非婚庆故事情节配饰需求的缩减，消费者者更加注重的产品的时尚品牌知名度。

6. 而且由于绿宝石品类过强快周转和再生产风险较少的表征，管理能力也强的大公司能够加速扩张。

7. 在疫情因素下，时尚品牌知名度低且管理能力也偏弱的大公司日渐解散加速，绿宝石珠宝服务业近年近来大大的提更高。

第四，如何把握投资机会？

1. 对绿宝石珠宝服务业以及金龙数则分析发现，整体绿宝石珠宝服务业的溢价中枢和服务业赤字度更相对于相关，数则的溢价中枢大大的上移有时候来自时尚品牌拓展能力也和空间的打开。

2. 服务业不仅仅来看，绿宝石珠宝服务业在饰品消费者故事情节的推展、故又称金等新兴工艺涡轮机的产品升级等因素涡轮机下，仍维持较好赤字度，而金龙数则的溢价外在历史文立体化低位，据此判断，现阶段服务业整迎来难得的配置时点。

3. Corporation不仅仅来看，在消费者者对时尚品牌的认知尽快提更高的21世纪下，过强不大时尚品牌优势的优质绿宝石珠宝金龙大公司，依托精准且加速的的产品更迭能力也以及渠道铺设能力也，未来能够享所致赛道的同时不间断获取市场份额。

4. 综合来看，可以关注过强一定时尚品牌认知度更高、市场推展能力也过强，且的产品算法努力的大公司。

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